Portland Program
June 16, 2004

Looking into the Crystal Ball:
The Search for the Future of Training and Development
with Ed Warnock

Overview

Joel Barker (Futurist and movie producer, “The Business of Paradigms”) said, “When a paradigm shifts, all players go back to zero. Paradigm shifts create unprecedented opportunities for first movers.” Where will the paradigm shifts come in training and development?

Pogo said, “The trouble is, the future is not what it used to be.”

None of us have a crystal ball, but all of us have the ability to apply futuring techniques to explore the future in our field of training and development. Seasoned strategic consultant, Ed Warnock, will facilitate a process for us to do just that in this hands-on, thought-provoking session. Futuring is the art and science of seeing new trends before they become readily apparent. 

This session is not a lecture on the future. Instead, it is a hands-on workshop using the techniques of successful futurist to piece together potential trends and emerging paradigms from interactions within the chaos – unexpected combinations of:

• Unsolvable problems
• Unusual social patterns
• Impractical technologies; and
• The seemingly strange activities of marginalized groups

An example of a perceived "unsolvable problem" from 10 years ago: How could everyone in the world get an original copy of a music performance at the same instance? Clues to the future answer: A number of years ago, a grunge band in Seattle (marginalized group) used the Internet (think slow dialup and tiny computer speakers - impractical technology) to “broadcast” their performance to the University of Washington campus. Only a few dozen marginalized people participated in an unusual social pattern using impractical technologies, but if the record industry was listening, it would have heard a precursor of the digital distribution paradigm that is today threatening to forever change how music is distributed and paid for. 

In this session, participants will have the opportunity to think beyond perceived roadblocks in their field. Participants will learn the skills and tools of a futurist, which can applied in numerous ways with your own clients. Great advantages and opportunities exist for those who learn to anticipate significant shifts within their fields. And this session is a great way to brainstorm many of these ideas with your peers. 

The practical questions for ASTD members that will be addressed during this session:

• Where will new opportunities appear within training and development? 
• How do I know if I’m chasing fads or delivering low value because I haven’t kept up?
• How do I reserve a chance to play a meaningful role in an uncertain future?
• Is technology the answer or a looming problem for training and development?

Speaker

Ed Warnock
Cumulus Resources, LLC

Ed is a past president of the ASTD-Cascadia Chapter and a seasoned strategic consultant with nearly 20 years corporate consulting experience. He is a consultant and trainer in “Getting Results: Optimizing Value Creation.” Ed received the Oregon Executive MBA award winning faculty teaching “Managing in the Future”. He has been an engineer, bush pilot and overseas development officer.

Details

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